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Finger on the pulse of the US banking system
Will the emptying of the Reverse Repo Facility cause a meltdown?
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Fallacy Alarm
Tracking Fiscal Flows in REAL TIME
There is enormous potential for alpha generation in understanding whether the fiscal debt binge will continue or not. Going forward, I will track this…
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Fallacy Alarm
2
November 2023 Market Strategy
My base case: Equities grinding higher in a low volatility regime, bond yields to remain elevated across all tenors and pure store of value assets to…
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Fallacy Alarm
2
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The Tesla Transformation 2030 (incl. Excel Model)
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2
What is a fair P/E ratio for Tesla?
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4
Enough with the Fear Porn already.
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12
TSLA 3Q23: Depressed Elon.
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7
This is where 2023 differs from 2008.
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20
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MSTR: The mother of all sh**cos.
Michael Saylor is a con artist who has used Bitcoin to pump the valuation of his stagnating, barely profitable business to absurd levels. There is huge…
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Fallacy Alarm
14
BioVie: Taken in chokehold by its majority shareholder (incl. Excel workbook)
As the majority shareholder has taken this company in chokehold, upside for investors is severely limited. This might make the upcoming phase 3 results…
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Fallacy Alarm
2
LMND 3Q23: Real juice or just squeezing?
Beat primarily driven by better pricing, lower CAT losses & higher interest rates, most of which are macro windfalls that don't indicate improved…
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Fallacy Alarm
8
How are US households really exposed to the rate hikes?
If the Fed wants to fight inflation with rate hikes, US households must be net interest payers. Are they?
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Fallacy Alarm
4
The Great Vindication of Modern Monetary Theory?
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is an unorthodox way of economic thinking that contradicts many ideas of mainstream economics. It was actually introduced…
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Fallacy Alarm
9
Resetting expectations for Tesla (incl. Excel workbook)
Repricing the stock to lower growth and less ambitious valuation levels.
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Fallacy Alarm
3
PCAR 3Q23: Looking toppy (incl. Excel workbook)
The company seems to have reached a cyclical top which does not appear to be priced in sufficiently. I see about 40% downside potential with limited…
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Fallacy Alarm
Fallacy Alarm
Fallacy Alarm
Blending single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful bull and bear cases.
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