Are Republicans overplaying their hand?
They are promising opportunities to grow and make money. I am not sure if many people are onboard with that.
TLDR Summary
Six months into his second term, the legacy of Trump’s administration is slowly taking shape. It’s all about opportunity. Opportunity to grow and make money. Every executive order, every legislation and every talking point is about that.
While this excites his fans, it overwhelms many others. The average person cannot make money of AI and doesn't care whether US companies will 'win' AI against China. They have no stake in that race. They see it as a threat, not as an opportunity. What they think about is "will I still have a job in 5 years?"
I don't see that fear taken seriously on the right, especially since its ideological merger with much of the tech industry. What I do see is that the left will capitalize on that it.
The wealth created by the US economy over the last 20 years has been allocated quite unevenly. There are clear winners and clear losers. Corporations are overearning vs. historical standards. Wage and salary earners are underearning. Trumps policies amplify this divergence which may eventually reach a critical point.
Zohran Mamdani, the canary in the coalmine?
On June 24, 2025, a young and previously unknown politician won the Democratic Primary for New York City’s mayoral election. It was a great upset because he decisively bet Andrew Cuomo, the candidate of the establishment, 56-44.
The strength of the Democratic Party in New York now makes Mamdani the clear frontrunner for the actual election in November. Polymarket quotes his odds currently at 70%.
What makes this so noteworthy is the fact that Mamdani can reasonably described as an extreme left candidate. He calls himself a socialist with a clear socialist agenda, incl. the promise to establish city-run non-for-profit grocery stores, freeze rents and make various services free, such as public transportation and healthcare. He is also making use of more radical talking points of the far left, like calling for defunding the police and siding with the Hamas in the Gaza conflict.
Mamdani is just the latest example of a successful far left politician. He is not the only one. Most importantly, AOC is currently rallying with Bernie Sanders on their Fighting Oligarchy Tour which draws more attendees than any other events held by the Democrats at the moment.
She has tremendous fund raising success and is allegedly even entertaining the idea of a presidential bid in 2028. I have long suspected that she will eventually rise to become the frontwoman of the Democrats as the Anti-Trump and a woke reincarnation of what Obama represented. This suspicion is growing stronger by the day. I originally thought the Democrats might move more towards the center as a response to their second defeat against Trump. But it’s seems more likely that they are doubling down and the polarization in US politics will increase even more.
If you are like me and a large part of your media consumption is YouTube and X, it’s sometimes tempting to believe the left is dead right now after their disastrous 2024 election result. But they are very much alive on other platforms with a huge reach, like Tiktok for example. Mamdani’s rise is a powerful reminder.
To explain where the success of far left politicians comes from and what economic and social consequences that may have, it is in my opinion helpful to take a look at the broader picture and the historical context that we are in.
We have become a quite cynical and nihilist society. But there is one thing we deeply and passionately care about: Justice.