Birkenstock: Put your sandals on and run away (incl. Excel workbook)

As the company is having a 'moment', their private equity owners are about to use public markets as exit liquidity listing a highly leveraged mundane company at a batsh** crazy valuation.

“Some say: “BIRKENSTOCK is having a moment”. I always reply then “this moment has lasted for 250 years, and it will continue to last” - driven by an international consumer movement toward casualization, a growing preference for healthy products, an increasing appreciation of craftmanship and a preference for brands with a purpose.”
Oliver Reichert, CEO, Birkenstock F-1 filing

If markets continue the cautious recovery exhibited over the last few days, you will likely read about Birkenstock going IPO in the coming days or weeks. They filed an F-1 Registration Statement on September 12, 2023 to list their stock on the NYSE under the symbol BIRK. An F-1 filing is similar to an S-1 filing. The only difference is that it relates to foreign private issuers as opposed to domestic US issuers.

The exact terms of the IPO won’t be known until shortly before it takes place. But the rumor is that they will be listed at a €10bn valuation. In my opinion, such a valuation would be ludicrous. Obviously, anything can happen in the short-term. But I can say with confidence that I believe this stock would underperform the S&P and its direct peers significantly in the medium to long-term with such a valuation.