Oral GLP-1 is now available. But drug development won't stop there. RNA-based weight loss drugs are the next frontier. They promise higher efficacy with better muscle retention.
I put a risk reversal on LLY. I don’t think the extent of side effects are fully understood, and they absolutely aren’t fully appreciated by the public, in terms of awareness. As usual, pharma has a white wash campaign in full gear - GLP-1 side effects aren’t that bad etc. But then reality started showing up (doctors can now, thanks to Covid vaccine preposterousness, speak out with slightly more freedom). I’ve had pancreatitis several times, the most recent attack necrotized half of my pancreatic tissue. I wasn’t taking GLP-1, but many people who do, suffer the same excruciating trauma inflicted on a very important organ. You’ll see. Pharma *always* gets out over its ski tips when a big sniff of recurring revenue wafts into the lab.
RFK has already started cracking down. I’m not saying these drugs aren’t miracles for those who’re truly obese and need to lose 50-100 lbs; I’m saying the 27 year old chick who wants to lose 5 lbs for summer vacay, stay at home moms who’re bored, dudes who’re too lazy to workout…..it’s been a couple years. Paralyzing your GI has consequences. Trust me.
So you sell puts (because the selloff will be warranted, but oversold); use the credit to buy the calls (because they might keep handing GLP-1 out like lolly pops regardless), and that’s my play. I’ll either end up owning 1500 shares of LLY at $650, or owning a dozen calls in the money.
It's generally a problem IMO that many people put the responsibility for their health into the hands of doctors and the pharma industry without appropriate consideration of side effects. Not just in obesity care. Popular cholesterol drugs may be linked to cognitive decline for example. I'm unsure whether a more diligent cost/benefit assessment will hurt the obesity drug industry anytime soon because the marketing power is so strong and because it's so convenient for people. Think about social media for example. Everyone knows about its downsides, but nobody is seriously attempting to regulate it. AI chatbot misuse, too.
Sorry to hear about your pancreas issue. I hope you will find a war to resolve it!
For higher risk/reward you also might look at $IBIO. Highly risky, could swing 20% a day without news. But potentially a best in class drug imo
Thank you for sharing! Seems similar to Regeneron's approach.
I put a risk reversal on LLY. I don’t think the extent of side effects are fully understood, and they absolutely aren’t fully appreciated by the public, in terms of awareness. As usual, pharma has a white wash campaign in full gear - GLP-1 side effects aren’t that bad etc. But then reality started showing up (doctors can now, thanks to Covid vaccine preposterousness, speak out with slightly more freedom). I’ve had pancreatitis several times, the most recent attack necrotized half of my pancreatic tissue. I wasn’t taking GLP-1, but many people who do, suffer the same excruciating trauma inflicted on a very important organ. You’ll see. Pharma *always* gets out over its ski tips when a big sniff of recurring revenue wafts into the lab.
RFK has already started cracking down. I’m not saying these drugs aren’t miracles for those who’re truly obese and need to lose 50-100 lbs; I’m saying the 27 year old chick who wants to lose 5 lbs for summer vacay, stay at home moms who’re bored, dudes who’re too lazy to workout…..it’s been a couple years. Paralyzing your GI has consequences. Trust me.
So you sell puts (because the selloff will be warranted, but oversold); use the credit to buy the calls (because they might keep handing GLP-1 out like lolly pops regardless), and that’s my play. I’ll either end up owning 1500 shares of LLY at $650, or owning a dozen calls in the money.
One thing LLY won’t do, is plateau.
It's generally a problem IMO that many people put the responsibility for their health into the hands of doctors and the pharma industry without appropriate consideration of side effects. Not just in obesity care. Popular cholesterol drugs may be linked to cognitive decline for example. I'm unsure whether a more diligent cost/benefit assessment will hurt the obesity drug industry anytime soon because the marketing power is so strong and because it's so convenient for people. Think about social media for example. Everyone knows about its downsides, but nobody is seriously attempting to regulate it. AI chatbot misuse, too.
Sorry to hear about your pancreas issue. I hope you will find a war to resolve it!