More meat to the natural gas bear case.
Producers have hedged, incentivizing them to produce more than they would do otherwise. And many shorts seem to have given up. Enough for this to finally come down again?
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is not and should not be construed as investment advice. This is my investing journey and I simply share what I do and why I do that for educational and entertainment purposes.
On January 17, 2025, I published the article below, outlining a bear case for BOIL 0.00%↑, the 2x leveraged ETF on natural gas futures.
Boy, has that article aged like milk? By March 10, the ETF had run another 56% from there. And that’s based on daily closes, not intraday swings that went briefly much higher during low liquidity weekend trading.
The ETF has trended down since then. But it’s still up 20% from the time when I published my article. This raises a question: Was I wrong? Or has the bear case simply become more compelling? I want to make two points today that support the latter.