October 2024 Market Strategy
For now, it's all about the election.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is not and should not be construed as investment advice. This is my investing journey and I simply share what I do and why I do that for educational and entertainment purposes.
In my September 2024 Market Strategy, I argued that there is likely still a lot of alpha in betting against recession fears based on positioning and sentiment data. This would likely be constructive for stocks and problematic for bonds. I pointed to two uncertainty factors, namely a) too much rate cut speculation in the face of economic strength and b) the presidential election where Trump was losing momentum after his debate with Harris. Markets had previously appreciated his rising odds all year since investors likely appreciate his stance on fiscal policy, energy policy and trade policy.
Let’s check how the picture has evolved since then.