December 2024 Market Strategy
Positioning and sentiment data suggest that this market is close to full risk-on. It seems impossible for it to live up to expectations. I expect a growth scare in 2025.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is not and should not be construed as investment advice. This is my investing journey and I simply share what I do and why I do that for educational and entertainment purposes.
In my November 2024 Market Strategy, I highlighted hints of exuberance in investor positioning and sentiment that came as a result of Trump’s victory. Economic optimism from that victory seems warranted, but there are also risks that don’t seem properly reflected. While inflation remained a non-issue, deficits suddenly accelerated which could be a one-off or a trend change with possibly profound implications.
Let’s check how the picture has evolved since then.
