November 2024 Market Strategy
Potential thesis break on cyclically-driven deficit decline, hints of exuberance in investor positioning and sentiment, initial take on Trump's second term.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is not and should not be construed as investment advice. This is my investing journey and I simply share what I do and why I do that for educational and entertainment purposes.
In my October 2024 Market Strategy, I argued that it was all about the election given that there weren’t any meaningful impulses from inflation or fiscal spending data. Markets were anticipating a Trump win, however with caution. Sector and asset class positioning was defensive with a big bond overweight. VIX net shorts were completely gone making a strong case for a swift vola crush fueled rally after the event.
Let’s check how the picture has evolved since then.