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Jun 9, 2022·edited Jun 9, 2022Liked by Fallacy Alarm

September Optimus reveal has me excited. Totally in line with your thinking - want TSLA to go big with practical bots at scale. Definitely a very unique company.

As an aside, do you have any thoughts on oil/energy crisis? With a huge run up in oil and related companies, hearing all the investors in energy saying this is comeuppance from the "green" energy wave and oil will sustain even more prices. Time for TSLA to shine is now to transition world amidst all the fear/uncertainty. Would love your thoughts on this topic. Thank you for fantastic posts.

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thank you for your kind feedback! still in the process of understanding the energy situation and what it means for me. over time the electrification and battery economy will likely fix this. looks like we have more than enough solar and wind power and it is still ramping fast, problem is more that fossil fuels still store energy much better. I notice regularly that we have a long way to go in battery technology, for instance when I wanted to power a stove with battery and solar for camping purposes and I wanted to install an electric AC/furnace system at home. in both cases, gas was the way more practical and economical solution.

it appears likely we will have a major economic headwind in the next couple of years from high energy costs. in any case, stocks like TSLA or AMRS appear to be a good combination of betting on long term trends and at the same time not being overly short in the oil trade (which technically all equity investors ex energy stocks are by design). also, the energy crunch appears to be in good part driven by poor regulatory incentives and investor incentives (ESG) and geopolitical issues, both of which are upward price pressures that cannot be managed by central markets draining liquidity. in fact it is the opposite as higher interest rates will actually disincentivize much needed investment. therefore, if the energy crisis persists and worsens, it will at some point likely trigger an expansive monetary response. you can already see the fiscal response as western governments are lowering energy taxes. this would be very supportive for asset prices in general. the only question is how close are we to this pain point? since it is impossible to know, to me the only way is to stay long in positions where long term conviction is high.

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Fantastic response. Thank you so much!!

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