The Great Bull Steepening

There is one critical aspect where the 2023 pivot set-up differs from 2019.

I recently posted that I am betting that long-term treasury yields won’t come down for a while which is a deviation from my overall macro framework. I have a couple of follow-up thoughts that I believe are worth sharing with you as additional support for that thesis. In particular, I will look at the 2019 policy pivot that serves as a blueprint for the …