What is Fallacy Alarm?
“Choosing individual stocks without any idea of what you're looking for is like running through a dynamite factory with a burning match. You may live, but you're still an idiot.”
I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements.
As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.
This newsletter will over time present you with a mosaic of my investment philosophy with reports building up on one another. These include:
Macro Research Reports on monetary policy, fiscal policy and investor sentiment & positioning.
Research Reports on Innovation Platforms, particularly energy storage and AI, the most important megatrends of our time.
Research Reports on Economic and Demographic History
Who is writing here?
I am a CFA charterholder with 10 years of experience in corporate finance consulting and 3 years in equity research, both buyside and sellside. My M&A clients included financial and strategic sponsors who I served with valuation services, financial diligence and business reviews. Now, I mostly manage my own account and I share the best excerpts from my investment process in this newsletter. I am German and I live with my wife and our two young boys in Canada.
Why the name Fallacy Alarm?
Investing is about synthesizing the enormous amount of information that we have available at our fingertips to differentiate what is true from what is not. Logical reasoning plays a key role in this process. A fallacy is the use of faulty reasoning. There are many ways our mind constantly tries to derail us from objectivity based on our beliefs and wishes. The name Fallacy Alarm is a reminder to myself to be constantly alert of this risk.
I strive to see the world like it is, not like I want it to be. And as an investor, I want to benefit from it.