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Updated thoughts on Tesla
2Q24 earnings review plus an assessment on the stock's prospects going forward.
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Fallacy Alarm
4
Seven reasons to be bullish
A summary of my recent macro work.
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Fallacy Alarm
2
July 2024 Market Strategy
An update on CPI, fiscal flows, monetary policy, investor sentiment & positioning and FX dynamics
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Fallacy Alarm
5
Is sand the new shale?
Canadian oil sands are staging a comeback as producers have quietly achieved substantial productivity gains. How relevant is this for the economy and…
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Fallacy Alarm
1
What tail risks should we worry about?
It's important to approach a risk assessment in a structured way to gain clarity about what matters and what does not.
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Fallacy Alarm

June 2024

The CBO predicts a $1.9tn deficit for 2024. Is spending accelerating?
One-offs distort the picture. Deficits will continue to come down.
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Fallacy Alarm
June 2024 Market Strategy
The latest CPI print has eased some inflation fears, but investors remain confused. As we're waiting for a new consensus to form, risk-on is still the…
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Fallacy Alarm
Demography is destiny
The difference between the number of middle aged and old aged people is the most important demographic metric. It determines a country's potential for…
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Fallacy Alarm
How to create the 2025-2027 stock market bubble in four simple steps
Rate cuts are coming because they are inevitable. This will launch a credit boom in the private sector that is loaded to the gills with savings. New…
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Fallacy Alarm
9
Where do we stand on the AI cycle?
To keep the party for AI suppliers going, AI customers need to see results. Recent earnings releases in the software and hardware distribution space…
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Fallacy Alarm
6

May 2024

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