Fallacy Alarm

Home
Podcast
Chat
Models & Tools
Tesla Research
Other Single Stock Research
Macro Research
Innovation Platforms
Economic & Demographic History
Investment Strategy
Archive
About
New
Top
Discussion
Commitment of Traders Report 29Sep23
Derivatives positioning in the most important equity, fixed income, FX and commodity markets
 • 
Fallacy Alarm
A wild scenario for the Treasury Yield Curve
What if current deficit spending is indeed sustainable?
 • 
Fallacy Alarm
6
IonQ: I believe this thing is real.
Performing calculations by manipulating atoms that exist in more than one state at the same time and that communicate with each other magically over…
 • 
Fallacy Alarm
Oh Canada...
Deluded monetary policy is clouding actual economic conditions. But it's not as bleak as many people think. Inflation is actually not an issue which…
 • 
Fallacy Alarm
2
The fate of this bull market
Is there even a difference between fiscal and monetary stimulus?
 • 
Fallacy Alarm
TSLA: Big upgrade from Morgan Stanley!
Foreshadowing a major run in the stock?
 • 
Fallacy Alarm
11
C3 AI 1Q24: Conman Cubed?
A pure AI story stock, far from a business model validation via profitability and cash flow breakeven. With a management team that shows more interest…
 • 
Fallacy Alarm
3
Winnebago: Short squeeze ahead? (incl. Excel valuation model)
Bears are doubling down. But it hasn't worked well for them so far. The stock has been robust recently. The odds favor a cyclical and structural rebound…
 • 
Fallacy Alarm
3
August 2023
Money Supply ≠ Liquidity
When you think liquidity, think credit, not money. It's still bull market fuel because it keeps growing. But in the end, does it even matter?
 • 
Fallacy Alarm
10
Commitment of Traders Report 25Aug23
Derivatives positioning in the most important equity, fixed income, FX and commodity markets
 • 
Fallacy Alarm
NVDA 2Q24: Green is the color of envy.
A glorious moment for a glorious company. But this earnings release might be more bullish for the stock market generally than this stock specifically.
 • 
Fallacy Alarm
2
Aug'23 Bank of America Fund Manager Survey
Believe it or not, investors are still positioned for a hard landing or at least a significant underperformance of the US economy while we're seeing…
 • 
Fallacy Alarm
6
© 2023 Fallacy Alarm
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing