Archive - Fallacy Alarm

Canada is in one of its greatest ever economic crises - and doesn't seem to realize it.

The Bank of Canada is strangulating the economy without realizing it and Canadians will reaffirm the federal government tomorrow that has sleepwalked us…

Apr 28 •

How is the US labor market doing?

For years the US job market has been very strong which encouraged tighter monetary policy. Are withheld tax receipts now slowing down to serve as the…

Apr 23 •

Are we dealing with Bond Pain Trade 2.0?

Institutional investors have allegedly swapped their stocks for bonds again. The last time they did so, a violent bull market ensued. But fundamental…

Apr 22 •

April 2025 Market Strategy

Investor derisking and fiscal flow seasonality might help the stock market to continue its bounce for a month or so. Beyond that, I remain unconvinced…

Apr 15 •

Can't China just open its financial gates and win this?

They could try to attract the foreign capital that America doesn't want anymore. It's a risky move, but it's what the CCP might already be working on.

Apr 11 •

Plaza Accord 2.0?

How can 1985 help us understand 2025?

Apr 9 •

Markets in turmoil - now what?

Commenting on the status quo and daring a few predictions.

Apr 3 •

More meat to the natural gas bear case.

Producers have hedged, incentivizing them to produce more than they would do otherwise. And many shorts seem to have given up. Enough for this to…

Apr 1 •

March 2025

Rocket is buying Mr. Cooper Group.

Another courageous step to consolidate the industry. Synergies appear attractive, but it does somewhat dilute the cyclical component to the bull case…

Mar 31 •

Borrowers' strike? Toronto, do we have a problem?

Rate cuts may prove to be less effective than anticipated if previous hiking excesses have spoiled Canadians' appetite for leverage.

Mar 27 •

Mr. Market is a Treasuries junkie.

And we are about see the price it has to pay for a detox.

Mar 25 •

Why and when are trade deficits good?

As long as the currency is strong and unemployment is low, trade deficits are desirable because they pull in foreign investment which grows the economic…

Mar 20 •

#nojs-banner { position: fixed; bottom: 0; left: 0; padding: 16px 16px 16px 32px; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: red; color: white; font-family: -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 13px; line-height: 13px; } #nojs-banner a { color: inherit; text-decoration: underline; } This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts