Archive - Fallacy Alarm

Where will bond yields settle when the storm is over?

Policy meddling is a wildcard that can't be predicted. But demographics clearly point to declining yields.

10 hrs ago •

The upcoming revival of the bond market

The capitulation is in full progress which finally provides the opportunity to reverse some of the enormous underperformance of recent years.

Apr 19 •

April 2024 Market Strategy (this one is important!)

The bond capitulation is finally happening. It comes at the worst time for the duration crowd. From an investment strategy perspective, this has…

Apr 17 •

The state of macro: A nuthouse with no hope?

Fixing inflation means getting deficits down. Rate cuts will therefore be disinflationary. When will the Fed understand that and act accordingly?

Apr 10 •

Time to go easy. (incl. Excel Workbook)

Rate cuts will cause a credit boom. Beneficiaries will be those with a high debt burden. The junkier the better. Like Canadian subprime lending for…

Apr 5 •

We're too depressed and cynical to produce a boom and bust.

Pessimism is like fertilizer for the stock market. And there is plenty of it right now.

Apr 2 •

March 2024

Much weaker USD ahead?

It's time for the global economy to shake off the US Dollar wrecking ball. Risk-on means Dollar down.

Mar 28 •

Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party

15 bull and bear cases summarized short and sweet.

Mar 25 •

Never hedge the most telegraphed risk.

Investors can't be complacent and attentive of inflation risks at the same time.

Mar 21 •

March 2024 Market Strategy

Narrative shift from soft landing to no landing in the making.

Mar 19 •

Is the fiscal impulse dying?

Just as the mainstream finally latches onto it, the fiscal bull case may start getting compromised for cyclical and political reasons. That's not bad…

Mar 15 •

Taking a look at Carvana plus a cross read on Root (incl. Excel Workbook)

The used car market is poised for a rebound. Will Carvana be able to leverage the opportunity to increase market share and resume its mission to…

Mar 12 •

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