Archive - Fallacy Alarm

Enough with the Fear Porn already.

Nobody will lose their deposits. Somebody will buy SVB's net assets (incl. deposits). We will quickly move on from this. The Fed hikes until something…

Mar 12, 2023 •

Should we be concerned about a potential crash of the Treasury Market?

No, you should worry when it rallies.

May 12 •

The US administration wants rates down.

What does that mean for the stock market?

Mar 7 •

This is where 2023 differs from 2008.

Back then it was a Private Debt Bubble. Now, it's a Public Debt Bubble, which has profound implications.

Jul 18, 2023 •

Let's try to contextualize DeepSeek.

Demand for intelligence is infinite. But time is needed to unlock it. The risk is real that capacity is being overbuilt right now.

Jan 27 •

A closer look at stock bond correlation

For me, the most unexpected aspect of recent events has been that both bonds and stocks moved up together. My expectation for this year was that…

Dec 28, 2023 •

Markets in turmoil - now what?

Commenting on the status quo and daring a few predictions.

Apr 3 •

Canada is in one of its greatest ever economic crises - and doesn't seem to realize it.

The Bank of Canada is strangulating the economy without realizing it and Canadians will reaffirm the federal government tomorrow that has sleepwalked us…

Apr 28 •

Can't China just open its financial gates and win this?

They could try to attract the foreign capital that America doesn't want anymore. It's a risky move, but it's what the CCP might already be working on.

Apr 11 •

The fate of this bull market

Is there even a difference between fiscal and monetary stimulus?

Sep 13, 2023 •

Time to fertilize my portfolio

Investors are ignoring an industry that is crucial to feed 8bn people. Its leading players utilize economies of scale and high entry barriers to return…

Jan 9, 2024 •

Is 'Violence' the ultimate tail risk?

The West is giving up Christianity which weakens people's ability to forgive each other & themselves. Obsessed about group justice and confused about…

Sep 1, 2024 •

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