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Fallacy Alarm
Feb 10, 2023
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Fallacy Alarm
KRE: Banking on the Pivot
Autopilot to Anguish? Monetary policymakers seem to be completely out of control with the steepest hiking cycle ever. They seem to be determined to keep interest rates high, defying the reality that inflation has been a non-issue for pretty much 6 months. They are running the US banking system into the ground. If they continue to do so, many banks will lose their livelihood as their asset portfolios are impaired and the yield curve inversion will make it eventually impossible to earn a positive interest margin…
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a month ago · 5 likes · Fallacy Alarm
Fallacy Alarm
Ginkgo Bioworks 3Q22 Digest
Disclaimer: The calculations herein have not been reviewed by anyone and some of them are just high level approximations. Please don’t rely on this information for your investment decisions. I am not providing financial advice with this newsletter. This is simply me trying to figure out this company and inviting you to join me in this journey. Feedback is always welcome in case you have comments, questions or additional context…
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6 months ago · 2 likes · Fallacy Alarm
Fallacy Alarm
The Short Thesis for Lemonade
The Company $LMND was founded in 2015 with the ambition to disrupt the insurance industry through automation and digitization of the customer onboarding, policy administration and claims management process. As of today, the company offers renters’, homeowners’, car, pet and term life insurance. They went public in July 2020 and have heavily targeted reta…
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6 months ago · 2 likes · 1 comment · Fallacy Alarm
Fallacy Alarm
Meta 3Q22 Digest & revisiting my original investment case
Here is my original investment case on : While bulls (to the extent they still exist) typically praise the company’s unambitious valuation, bears point to weak earnings quality. What both have in common is that they try to build a case around their legacy business and they are stuck in…
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7 months ago · 10 likes · 1 comment · Fallacy Alarm
Fallacy Alarm
From generation heads-down to generation heads up - the investment case for Meta Platforms
The consensus investment case for Meta For most bulls, the investment case on Meta rests on the rise of the metaverse/web3.0, an investment theme that gained traction since Facebook’s renaming to Meta in October 2021. The promise of the metaverse is a decentralized reinvention of the internet which gives the power from the centralized platforms of today …
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a year ago · 5 likes · 5 comments · Fallacy Alarm
Fallacy Alarm
Short Opportunity in AMC
Disclosure/Disclaimer: I am short long dated calls in AMC stock. While this post does present an actionable idea, it is not financial advice. I am not a registered investment advisor and none of the analysis below has been reviewed by a 2nd set of eyes, which is why there could be material errors therein. Please don’t rely on it…
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9 months ago · 2 likes · Fallacy Alarm
Fallacy Alarm
Rocket Companies Investment Case
While it does create some PTSD-type sensations for me, I actually believe it is a great time for a fresh look at RKT. We are about to celebrate the first anniversary of the insane March 2021 gamma squeeze and the company will report their annual 2021 earnings on Feb 24. For background, going into 4Q20 earnings, I loaded up on stock and calls. I 5x’ed it…
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a year ago · 1 like · 2 comments · Fallacy Alarm
Fallacy Alarm
Is AMZN the best opportunity in Big Tech?
Megatrends driving big tech I believe Big Tech is where the outperformance can most easily be found for retail investors. The stocks of these companies are on decade(s) long bull runs with constant % performance suggesting the more they grow the more they grow…
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a year ago · 4 likes · 4 comments · Fallacy Alarm
Fallacy Alarm
Is Spotify a sleeping ad giant?
The Introduction Great investment opportunities often exist when a company with a strong track record tells you what they are going to do, but because it is highly ambitious, markets do not give them credit until they show tangible progress on execution. Spotify in early 2022 may be such a case…
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a year ago · 6 likes · 2 comments · Fallacy Alarm
Fallacy Alarm
Enphase Investment Case
Summary I like to bet on winners in megatrends. The rise of electric autonomous vehicles? Tesla. The rise of biological manufacturing? Amyris. The next paradigm shift in the human machine interface? Facebook. Decarbonization of our economy? Tesla again. Or wait? Is there something else to consider…
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a year ago · 4 likes · 2 comments · Fallacy Alarm

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