Sitemap - 2024 - Fallacy Alarm
Is Mr. Market's rocket fuel running out?
The most important question in any bull case
How narratives rise and fall: A case study of Gold
Telematics is not the insurance industry's savior.
Volatility: A story of stairs and elevators
How might US stocks fail in 2025?
Contextualizing the Root Carvana Partnership
Here's a parallel between 2008 and today.
What is Root's value? (incl. Excel workbook)
Insurance Update: ROOT & LMND 3Q24 earnings
Is Donald Trump a boon or a burden for the Republicans?
The most surprising thing about Tesla's 3Q24
MicroStrategy: The Momentum Matryoshka
Tesla: The Disney World for grown-ups
Toyota: An unexpected winner in automotive?
How strong is the US labor market?
Cerebras IPO: Launching the next phase of the AI bubble.
September 2024 Market Strategy
SMMT: Earthquake in the pharma industry
The rise and fall of Germany after 2000
When you think about fossil fuels, think storage, not generation.
RILY: What's up with the most hated stock on Wall Street?
Is 'Violence' the ultimate tail risk?
The Real Estate comeback will be huge.
Insurance Update: ROOT & LMND 2Q24 earnings
Rocket Companies 2Q24 Earnings Review (incl. Excel workbook)
Spirit Airlines 2Q24 Earnings Review
Some of this is originates from the GFC.
What tail risks should we worry about?
The CBO predicts a $1.9tn deficit for 2024. Is spending accelerating?
How to create the 2025-2027 stock market bubble in four simple steps
Where do we stand on the AI cycle?
'Velocity of money' is a stupid economic concept.
How real is the 2024 inflation echo?
The US trade balance is cushioning the effects of the declining public deficits.
Spirit 1Q24: Turnaround is taking time
ROOT 1Q24: Flooring the gas pedal even harder (incl. Excel workbook)
Where will bond yields settle when the storm is over?
The upcoming revival of the bond market
April 2024 Market Strategy (this one is important!)
The state of macro: A nuthouse with no hope?
Time to go easy. (incl. Excel Workbook)
We're too depressed and cynical to produce a boom and bust.
Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party
Never hedge the most telegraphed risk.
Taking a look at Carvana plus a cross read on Root (incl. Excel Workbook)
There's more to Root for! (incl. Excel Workbook)
The Great 2023/24 Short Call Burn.
AInsurance Wars: ROOT vs. LMND
The Dawn of the Natural Gas Age
Lithium: A dark corner in a bright stock market
Spirit 4Q23: Beginning of the Turnaround?
Time to fertilize my portfolio
A closer look at the issuance structure of Treasury securities