Sitemap - 2024 - Fallacy Alarm

December 2024 Market Strategy

The German Energy Fiasco

Fed Put? No, Treasury Call.

Is Mr. Market's rocket fuel running out?

Strategic Bitcoin reserve?

The most important question in any bull case

How narratives rise and fall: A case study of Gold

Telematics is not the insurance industry's savior.

Back to 5,000?

Volatility: A story of stairs and elevators

How might US stocks fail in 2025?

Contextualizing the Root Carvana Partnership

November 2024 Market Strategy

Here's a parallel between 2008 and today.

What is Root's value? (incl. Excel workbook)

Trump, Musk and Bitcoin.

Insurance Update: ROOT & LMND 3Q24 earnings

Is Donald Trump a boon or a burden for the Republicans?

The most surprising thing about Tesla's 3Q24

MicroStrategy: The Momentum Matryoshka

October 2024 Market Strategy

Tesla: The Disney World for grown-ups

Toyota: An unexpected winner in automotive?

How strong is the US labor market?

Cerebras IPO: Launching the next phase of the AI bubble.

EQT is an insurance company

The Great Decoupling

September 2024 Market Strategy

SMMT: Earthquake in the pharma industry

The rise and fall of Germany after 2000

When you think about fossil fuels, think storage, not generation.

RILY: What's up with the most hated stock on Wall Street?

Is 'Violence' the ultimate tail risk?

The Real Estate comeback will be huge.

August 2024 Market Strategy

Insurance Update: ROOT & LMND 2Q24 earnings

Rocket Companies 2Q24 Earnings Review (incl. Excel workbook)

Spirit Airlines 2Q24 Earnings Review

Some of this is originates from the GFC.

Updated thoughts on Tesla

Seven reasons to be bullish

July 2024 Market Strategy

Is sand the new shale?

What tail risks should we worry about?

The CBO predicts a $1.9tn deficit for 2024. Is spending accelerating?

June 2024 Market Strategy

Demography is destiny

How to create the 2025-2027 stock market bubble in four simple steps

Where do we stand on the AI cycle?

'Velocity of money' is a stupid economic concept.

How real is the 2024 inflation echo?

May 2024 Market Strategy

The US trade balance is cushioning the effects of the declining public deficits.

Spirit 1Q24: Turnaround is taking time

What about the Yen?

ROOT 1Q24: Flooring the gas pedal even harder (incl. Excel workbook)

Where will bond yields settle when the storm is over?

The upcoming revival of the bond market

April 2024 Market Strategy (this one is important!)

The state of macro: A nuthouse with no hope?

Time to go easy. (incl. Excel Workbook)

We're too depressed and cynical to produce a boom and bust.

Much weaker USD ahead?

Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party

Never hedge the most telegraphed risk.

March 2024 Market Strategy

Is the fiscal impulse dying?

Taking a look at Carvana plus a cross read on Root (incl. Excel Workbook)

There's more to Root for! (incl. Excel Workbook)

The Great 2023/24 Short Call Burn.

AInsurance Wars: ROOT vs. LMND

The Ultimate Pain Trade

The Dawn of the Natural Gas Age

February 2024 Market Strategy

Lithium: A dark corner in a bright stock market

China is a No Touch!

Spirit 4Q23: Beginning of the Turnaround?

US Banking Groundhog Day?

Supermicro, SuperNVIDIA?

The US oil production boom

Taking a fresh look at XLE

Catch the Spirit?

Dope or Nope?

Time to fertilize my portfolio

A closer look at the issuance structure of Treasury securities

My template for trading Biotech stocks