Sitemap - 2023 - Fallacy Alarm

A closer look at stock bond correlation

My template for trading natural gas futures

Building the roadmap for 2024

Dec'23 Trader positioning update

The party is on. What comes after?

Finger on the pulse of the US banking system

Tracking Fiscal Flows in REAL TIME

November 2023 Market Strategy

MSTR: The mother of all sh**cos.

Legal

BioVie: Taken in chokehold by its majority shareholder (incl. Excel workbook)

LMND 3Q23: Real juice or just squeezing?

How are US households really exposed to the rate hikes?

The Great Vindication of Modern Monetary Theory?

Resetting expectations for Tesla (incl. Excel workbook)

PCAR 3Q23: Looking toppy (incl. Excel workbook)

USA 4Q23 earnings

Winnebago 4Q23: Thesis Update (incl. Excel workbook)

TSLA 3Q23: Depressed Elon.

THE most important alpha generation tool

Lilly, Novo and the quest for curing obesity (incl. Excel workbook)

What's crowded? Bond longs or shorts?

Birkenstock: Put your sandals on and run away (incl. Excel workbook)

Commitment of Traders Report 29Sep23

A wild scenario for the Treasury Yield Curve

IonQ: I believe this thing is real.

Oh Canada...

The fate of this bull market

TSLA: Big upgrade from Morgan Stanley!

C3 AI 1Q24: Conman Cubed?

Winnebago: Short squeeze ahead? (incl. Excel valuation model)

Money Supply ≠ Liquidity

Commitment of Traders Report 25Aug23

NVDA 2Q24: Green is the color of envy.

Aug'23 Bank of America Fund Manager Survey

Jul'23 CPI Update

The Tesla Transformation 2030 (incl. Excel Model)

RKT 2Q23: Shaking off the mortgage rate shock

LMND 2Q23: Still an excellent short idea

The importance of identifying investing synergies

Carrier 2Q23: Story on track

Shorting UVXY: Madness or Money Maker?

Commitment of Traders Report 21Jul23

Tesla 2Q23: Patience is a Virtue

This is where 2023 differs from 2008.

The Great Bull Steepening

Supercomputers: A tale of shovels and nuggets.

I strangled the TLT.

Commitment of Traders Report 16Jun23

May'23 CPI Update

Why is Tesla stock so manic?

Crude Contango

GDP vs. GDI

Debt Deal Digest

NVDA 1Q24: Key Takeaways

CAPREIT: Betting on the Canadian Century

The perfect storm is brewing.

AirBnB: Defying the Disruptor's Deflation Dilemma

May'23 FOMC & CPI Update

Pumping Up the Heat: Carrier's Growth Transformation

Mobileye 1Q23: Cross-Read for Tesla FSD

KRE: Banking on the Pivot

Sell the rumor, buy the news?

TSLA 1Q23: 3 months nope, 3 years dope

When Short-Squeeze?

TSLA Earnings Preview: Fruits are hanging low. (incl. Excel Model)

From Sour to Sweet

Wirtschaftswunder in Reverse

Quantifying the Tesla Insurance Opportunity (incl. Excel Model)

The next round of QE might happen without an official Fed program.

Liquidity Provision Risk Premium and the Cost of Leverage

The Fed just reversed 4 months QT in 4 days.

BTFP is insufficient.

Enough with the Fear Porn already.

Here is why I'm not buying bonds.

Time to Catch Up!

Ten Trillion Dollars

What's the Value of Tesla FSD? (incl. Excel Model)

The Great Pandemic Era Option Bubble

Other Single Stock Research

Innovation Platforms

Investment Strategy

Lessons from Economic & Demographic History

Macro Research

Tesla Research

Fluence 1Q23 cross-read for Tesla Energy

S&P 5,000 by Christmas 2023? (Excel Workbook included)

Jan'23 FOMC Digest

What might Tesla Finance look like? (Excel Model included)

Update of my TSLA 2023 EPS Estimate based on 4Q22 Earnings (Excel Model included)

My Case for a Soft Landing

Dec'22 Inflation Update

What might Tesla's 2023 EPS look like? (Excel Model included)

What is a fair P/E ratio for Tesla?